A collapse map – Week 10 – March 10, 2023 at 11:09AM

Hi fellow collapsniks,

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Here is this week’s iteration of my collapse map, week 10.

As a reminder, I’m making this map every week, it is color coding countries regarding their collapse status. It ranges from green (the country is functioning & far from a collapse) to black (the country has totally collapsed). Details of the color ranges at the bottom of the post. The collapse status is different from the standards of living, wealth, happiness, or political regime (even if it is related).

– That map is not a forecast nor its intent is to forecast collapse. It is a glimpse on the immediate, current state of things.

– This is also not meant to be “the ultimate truth” about collapse for every country. It’s only my personal point of view on the collapse situations in the world. In the end, you may agree or disagree with the colors and I’m always happy to discuss and debate, still the point is not to get to an unanimous agreement, but more to trigger the discussion.

– Please note that having a far right or even dictatorial government has nothing to do with collapse directly. It may even be the opposite: authoritarian measures, on the short term, are ensuring the stability of a society, thus preventing immediate collapse. To be clear: I’m not advocating for those measures or this type of government. But still, it is a temporary shield against collapse.

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Updates since last week:

– Vanuatu turns yellow instead of green: it suffered from 2 successive hurricanes + 1 earthquake

– China is turning green instead of yellow. I got them yellow end of last year when they released the covid measures; it led to a huge number of infections + obvious disruptions in the logistic chains. That also triggered massive (unprecedented in recent China history) protests against the government. But it’s been a few weeks that nothing is happening anymore (at least no news about protests or strikes is passing through the great firewall).

– France: massive strikes & protests started this week against a pension reform. Several ports, oil raffineries, train lines… Are not functioning anymore. So far there are no shortages of fuel or logistics issues, but it can quickly evolve. Staying green.

– Kosovo is turning green again instead of yellow. Situation regarding Serbia is calming down a little bit, it’s not a nationwide crisis anymore.

– Tadjikistan & Kirgizstan also green (and not yellow anymore) again; there were severe clashes with deaths on both side in September, resulting in a tense political situation, but now it is quiet again.

– Georgia: I wanted to put them yellow, due to the historical protests they have ongoing. Those are against one particular law, but behind the scenes it’s more against the government in general, and the pro-Russian stance that it is trying to adopt (against the people’s will, which wants to get close to EU). But the government backed up and dropped the law. Plus, in reality the protests didn’t lead to any significant unrests, nor any crisis (despite a political crisis). So it’s staying green for now.

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https://preview.redd.it/okamimgwxuma1.png?width=6443&format=png&auto=webp&s=d640921bf7e24af4567796215c117621e532c0f0

As always, comments, critics & feedbacks are more than welcome!

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Reminder of the colors meaning:

– Green is a functioning country. That does not mean the country is a good country to live in. North Korea is green, in the sense that it is functioning and it does not look like it will collapse anytime soon. Still, I know, it’s one of the worst dictatorships in the world, with concentration camps, nuclear threats on their neighbors, and population being more or less enslaved, malnourished and brainwashed. But unfortunately the regime there is pretty strong and stable since a while, so it is green under a collapse perspective. Same kind of reasoning applies for oil-blessed Middle East countries: Human, women and LGBT rights are not a thing there, still those countries are (ultra) rich and functioning correctly, as of today. Green examples: Germany, France, Qatar, Israel, Japan.

– Yellow means the country is in a serious crisis. There are large-scale troubles ongoing that are altering the normalcy of the daily life for most of the population. Still not a catastrophic state for the population. Nationwide protests in the streets are not a crisis; but if it leads to civil unrest at a significant scale (like overthrowing the parliament – as in Suriname or Brazil), then it could be a crisis.

Fuel or food shortages for a significant part of the population are a crisis, if that is a new thing. Having a poor/malnourished population since years or decade is not a crisis per se, because it’s the normal (read stable) state of things there. A unexpected and sudden full government change may or may not be a crisis, depending on how it’s happening. Canada is yellow, as it suffers multiple “small” crises at the same time: housing, healthcare, inflation, homelessness, climatic…

The crisis in yellow countries is not that major that it may trigger a full collapse in the short term. Examples: US, UK, Russia, Brazil, Suriname.

– Red means the country is close to collapse. It has major structural issues and ongoing crises and could collapse quickly, under a few months or weeks. Examples: Libya, Myanmar, Pakistan.

– Black means the country has collapsed already and completely. Whether it’s economically (Venezuela), societally/structurally (Haiti), or suffering a full scale civil war (Yemen), or all at once… Examples: Somalia, Afghanistan, Syria. So far 9 countries in the world are considered collapsed on this map.