A collapse map – Week 7 – February 17, 2023 at 05:30AM

Hi guys,

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Here is this week’s iteration of my collapse map.

It is color coding countries regarding their collapse status, from green (the country is far from collapse) to black (the country has totally collapsed). The collapse status is not the same thing as the standards of living, wealth, happiness, or political regime (even if it is linked).

That map is not a forecast nor its intent is to forecast collapses. It is a glimpse on the immediate, current state of things.

Disclaimer: This is not meant to be “the ultimate truth” about collapse for every country. It’s only my personal point of view on the collapse situations in the world. I’m closely following the news about collapse around the world and have a few set up alerts on different channels. But I can definitely miss things! If that happens please tell me. I’m glad if I can expand my views and gather some more info. In the end, you may agree or disagree with the colors and I’m always happy to discuss and debate, still the point is not to get to an unanimous agreement, but more to trigger the discussion, expand everyone’s overview, and get a global view of the collapse dynamics around the globe.

Updates since last week:

– Eritrea in Red, not Black. Since the truce in November, the government is slowly taking some control back, things are still terrible but I would say the country is not anymore fully collapsed. That may be different for Tigray but that’s “only” a region of another country.

– New Zealand: yellow instead of green. I would love your feedback for that one: they suffered several flooding in the last weeks in different regions (+ a small earthquake), that’s the main reason for turning yellow. These are big and covering significant part of the country, but in the end, most of the country is still ok, so I’m not so sure of the color. Also, since NZ is a rich Western country, presumably in a few weeks most of the cleaning will be done and the rebuilding will have begin: so it will be green again.

Moldavia is staying green, even if with some bad luck due to Russian attacks it could quickly change color.

Details of colors meanings:

– Green is a functioning country. That does NOT mean the country is a good country to live in. North Korea is green, in the sense that it is functioning and it does not look like it will collapse anytime soon. Still, I know, it’s one of the worst dictatorships in the world, with concentration camps, nuclear threats on their neighbors, and population being more or less enslaved, malnourished and brainwashed. But unfortunately the regime there is pretty strong and stable since a while, so it is green under a collapse perspective. Same kind of reasoning applies for oil-blessed Middle East countries: Human, women and LGBT rights are not a thing there, still those countries are (ultra) rich and functioning correctly, as of today. Green examples: Germany, France, Australia, India, Qatar, Israel, Japan.

– Yellow means the country is in a serious crisis. There are large-scale troubles ongoing that are altering the normalcy of the daily life for most of the population. Still not a catastrophic state for the population. Nationwide protests in the streets are not a crisis; but if it leads to civil unrest at a significant scale (like overthrowing the parliament – Brazil), then it could be a crisis.

Fuel or food shortage for a significant part of the population are a crisis, if that is a new thing. Having a poor/malnourished population since years or decade is not a crisis per se, because it’s the normal (stable) state of things there. A unexpected and sudden full government change may or may not be a crisis, depending on how it’s happening. The crisis in yellow countries is not that major that it may trigger a full collapse in the short term. Examples: US, UK, Russia, Brazil, China.

– Red means the country is on the verge to collapse. It has major structural issues and could definitely collapse quickly, under a few months. Examples: Libya, Myanmar, Pakistan.

– Black means the country has collapsed already and completely. Whether it’s economically (Venezuela), societally/structurally (Haiti), or suffering a full scale civil war (Yemen), or all at once… Examples: Somalia, Sri Lanka, Syria. So far 9 countries in the world are considered collapsed on this map.

Again, feel free to comment and please give me your critics! And of course if I overlooked or forgot a country status change, please tell me.

PS: Since I’m getting that often: Having a far right or even dictatorial government has nothing to do with collapse directly. It may even be the opposite: authoritarian measures, on the short term, are ensuring the stability of a society, thus preventing immediate collapse. To be clear: I’m not advocating for those measures or this type of government. But still, it is a temporary shield against collapse.

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https://preview.redd.it/17nagg7irpia1.png?width=6443&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a7cce8b0d0157b89e5720012e68180f6c94cb25

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