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January 17, 2025

A New Provincial Electoral Map is Taking Shape for OntarioSim – August 24, 2022 at 07:30PM

The OntarioSim Elections Agency has proposed a new electoral map for consideration by the community. The map introduces changes to OntarioSim electoral district boundaries and increases the total number of seats to 15.

Process for Electoral Readjustment

The Canon Election Meta Act establishes the process for readjusting federal electoral boundaries. The process is as follows:

  1. The Elections Agency proposes boundaries for electoral districts.
  2. The redistribution plan is published on r/OntarioSimMeta it contains maps of the proposed electoral boundaries
  3. Users on r/OntariosimMeta have one week to discuss any objections to the proposal.
  4. Once r/OntariosimMeta has considered the proposal, it is returned to the Elections Agency along with the objections.
  5. The Elections Agency then decides whether to modify its proposal and provides a final certified copy of its report to the Election Moderator.
  6. Once the Election Moderator has received the final reports of the Elections Agency, a draft meta-rule is prepared, describing and naming the electoral districts established by the Elections Agency.
  7. Within one week of receiving the draft meta-rule, the Election Moderator must publicly announce the new boundaries in a meta-rule, which must then be published in OntarioSimMeta.
  8. The new boundaries cannot be used in an election until at least one month has passed between the date the meta-rule was enacted and the date that the Legislature is dissolved for a general election.

Reasons for the Proposed Electoral Boundaries

A Meta Vote agreed that OntarioSim should have 5 additional electoral districts, raising the total number of electoral districts in the province from 10 to 15. When readjusting electoral boundaries, the Elections Agency is required to ensure that the population in each electoral district shall, as closely as reasonably possible, correspond to the electoral quota for the province. The quota for electoral districts in Ontario is 948,263, which is established by dividing the census population by the number of electoral districts.

The Meta Act permits the Elections Agency to depart from the quota where necessary or desirable in order to:

  • respect the community of interest or community of identity in, or the historical pattern of an electoral district in the province, or
  • maintain a manageable geographic size for electoral districts in sparsely populated, rural or northern regions of the province.

When considering these factors, the Elections Agency must make every effort to ensure that, except in circumstances it views as extraordinary, the population of each electoral district in the province remains within 25% (plus or minus) of the electoral quota. The upper limit of deviation from the quota is 1,185,329, and the lower limit of deviation from the quota is 711,197.

Current Electoral District Variation

(Electoral Quotient 948,263)

Electoral District Name 2021 Census Population Variation
Peel 1,451,022 53.0%
Durham-York 1,650,951 74.1%
Old Toronto-Etobicoke 1,511,193 59.4%
North York-Scarborough 1,283,163 35.3%
Ottawa-Kingston 1,722,615 81.7%
Simcoe-Peterborough-Prince Edward 1,394,012 47.0%
Hamilton-Niagara-Halton 1,643,931 73.4%
Brantford-London-Windsor 1,644,366 73.4%
Waterloo-Grey-Bruce 1,145,423 20.8%
Northern Ontario 792,677 -16.4%

Every electoral district other than Waterloo-Grey-Bruce and Northern Ontario is above the upper limit of deviation, as a result, the elections agency decided to place the 5 new ridings as follows:

  1. Adding a third district in Southwestern Ontario
  2. Adding a third riding in the City of Toronto
  3. Adding a second district in Eastern Ontario
  4. Adding a third district in the Golden Horseshoe
  5. Adding a third district in Central Ontario and the Northeastern Toronto Suburbs.

NORTHERN ONTARIO

The total population of the electoral district in the region does not warrant an additional electoral district. One request I received was to keep Party Sound and Muskoka together, as they are federally and Provincially IRL, in order to accomplish this, Party Sound will be detached from Northern Ontario and attached with Muskoka into the proposed district of Georgian Bay.

The Elections Agency proposes that the electoral district of NORTHERN ONTARIO be comprised of the current electoral district, less the portion assigned to the proposed district Georgian Bay. It has a population of 745,767 and is 21.35% below the quota.

SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO

The total population of the 2 electoral districts in the region warrants an additional electoral district. Waterloo-Grey-Bruce is only slightly above the quotient and can be brought easily to the quotient by moving the Counties of Grey and Bruce into the proposed electoral district of Georgian Bay. Brantford-London-Windsor is significantly above quotient and can be split into two with both being slightly below quotient, with one riding centred around Windsor and Sarnia, and the other centred around London.

The Elections Agency proposes that the electoral district of WATERLOO-GREY-BRUCE be renamed WATERLOO-HURON. It is composed of the current electoral district, less the portion assigned to the proposed district of Georgian Bay. It has a population of 970,482 and is 2.34% above the quota.

The Elections Agency proposes that the electoral district of BRANTFORD-LONDON-WINDSOR be renamed LONDON-BRANTFORD. It is composed of the current electoral district, less the portion assigned to the proposed district of Sarnia-Chatham-Windsor. It has a population of 921,150 and is 2.86% below the quota.

The Elections Agency proposes a new electoral district named SARNIA-CHATHAM-WINDSOR. It is composed of the Municipality of Chatham-Kent; the County of Essex, the City of Windsor, the County of Lambton and the County of Middlesex, less the Municipality of Thames Centre. It has a population of 724,280 and is 23.62% below the quota.

CITY OF TORONTO

The total population of the 2 electoral districts in the region warrants an additional electoral district. The City of Toronto Community Councils were roughly the basis of the boundaries of the existing two electoral districts in the city, combining Toronto and East York with Etobocoke York, and combining Scarborough with North York. Of the 4 community Councils, the one with the largest population, Toronto and East York, is only 4.40% below the quotient, so I have opted to use it as the new electoral district, with Etobicoke merging with the western Sections of North york, and Scarborough Merging with the Eastern Sections of north york, to create 2 roughly on quotient suburban toronto electoral districts.

The Elections Agency proposes that the electoral district of NORTH YORK-SCARBOROUGH be renamed SCARBOROUGH-DON VALLEY. It is composed of the current electoral district, less the portion assigned to the proposed district of Etobicoke-North York. It has a population of 941,446 and is 0.72% below the quota.

The Elections Agency proposes that the electoral district of OLD TORONTO-ETOBICOKE be renamed ETOBICOKE-NORTH YORK. It is composed of the current electoral district, less the portion assigned to the proposed district of Toronto-East York, plus that portion of current electoral district of North York-Scarborough lying west of Bayview Avenue as far as the 401, then northwest of the 401 as far as Yonge Street, then west of Yonge Street. It has a population of 947,004 and is 0.13% below the quota.

The Elections Agency proposes a new electoral district named TORONTO-EAST YORK. It is composed of that portion of current electoral district of Old Toronto-Etobicoke lying east of the GO Transit Railway situated east of Blackthom Avenue as far as Rogers Road, then south of Rogers Road as far as Old Weston Road, then east of Old Weston Road as far as Lavender Road, then south of Lavender Road as far as Keele Street, then east of Keele Street and a Production of Keele Street as far as the GO Transit Railway, then east of the GO Transit Railway as far as the Canadian Pacific Railway, then south of the Canadian Pacific Railway as far as the Humber River, then east of the Humber River. It has a population of 906,546 and is 4.40% below the quota.

EASTERN ONTARIO

The total population of the electoral district in the region warrants an additional electoral district. The City of Ottawa is roughly on Quotient (7.30% above) so can be made a district, the remaining parts of Ottawa-Kingston are below the lower deviation limit (25.6% below), but can be brought back above the limit by moving Prince Edward, Belleville, Quinte West, and Hastings County from the current district of Simcoe-Peterborough-Prince Edward into Kingston.

The Elections Agency proposes that the electoral district of OTTAWA-KINGSTON be renamed PRINCE EDWARD-KINGSTON-CORNWALL. It is composed of the current electoral district, less the portion assigned to the proposed district of Ottawa, plus the County of Prince Edward, the City of Belleville, the City of Quinte West and the County of Hastings. It has a population of 875,552 and is 7.67% below the quota.

The Elections Agency proposes a new electoral district named OTTAWA. It is composed of the City of Ottawa. It has a population of 1,017,449 and is 7.30% above the quota.

GOLDEN HORSESHOE

The total population of the 2 electoral districts in the region warrants an additional electoral district. Hamilton and Niagara combined are roughly on quotient (10.44% above), so they can be made a district. The Regional Municipalities of Peel and Halton need to be split in two roughly evenly, this is easier said than done as Peel has a significantly higher population than Halton, so a clean Peel/Halton split into two is not feasible. The Electoral Agency Proposes roughly a north/south split, with Brampton, Caledon, Halton Hills, and Mississauga North of Eglinton Avenue forming one electoral district, and Mississauga South of Eglinton Avenue, Oakville, Burlington, and Milton forming another electoral district.

The Elections Agency proposes that the electoral district of HAMILTON-NIAGARA-HALTON be renamed HAMILTON-NIAGARA. It is composed of the current electoral district, less the portions assigned to the proposed districts of Peel North-Halton Hills and Mississauga South-Halton. It has a population of 1,047,294 and is 10.44% above the quota.

The Elections Agency proposes that the electoral district of PEEL be renamed PEEL NORTH-HALTON HILLS. It is composed of the current electoral district, less the portion assigned to the proposed district Mississauga South-Halton, plus the Town of Halton Hills. It has a population of 1,105,822 and is 16.62% above the quota.

The Elections Agency proposes a new electoral district named MISSISSAUGA SOUTH-HALTON. It is composed of that part of the City of Mississauga lying south of Eglinton Avenue, and the regional Municipality of Halton less the Town of Halton Hills. It has a population of 941,837 and is 0.68% below the quota.

NORTHEASTERN TORONTO SUBBURBS AND CENTRAL ONTARIO

The total population of the 2 electoral districts in the region warrants an additional electoral district. York Region on its own is above quotient but within the upper limit (23.74% above), so will be made it’s own district. Finding 2 satisfactory districts between Durham Region and Central Ontario proved to be extremely difficult, but the final decision is to mostly carve up Simcoe-Peterborough-Prince Edward, the Eastern Sections of the Riding (Prince Edward County and Hastings County) to be moved in with Kingston. Peterborough, Haliburton and Central Ontario east of Lake Simcoe to be combined in with Durham, and the remaining sections of the riding to annex areas from Waterloo-Grey-Bruce and Northern Ontario to hug the shores of Georgian Bay.

The Elections Agency proposes that the electoral district of SIMCOE-PETERBOROUGH-PRINCE EDWARD be renamed GEORGIAN BAY. It is composed of the current electoral district, less the portions assigned to the proposed electoral districts of York, Prince Edward-Kingston-Cornwall and Durham-Peterborough-Haliburton , plus the the Territorial District of Parry Sound, the County of Grey, and the County of Bruce. It has a population of 887,534 and is 6.40% below the quota.

The Elections Agency proposes that the electoral district of DURHAM-YORK be renamed DURHAM-PETERBOROUGH-HALIBURTON. It is composed of the current electoral district, less the portion assigned to the proposed electoral district of York, plus the Township of Brock, the Township of Scugog, the Municipality of Clarington, the County of Northumberland, the County of Peterborough, the City of Kawartha Lakes, the City of Peterborough and the County of Haliburton. It has a population of 1,033,856 and is 9.03% above the quota.

The Elections Agency proposes a new electoral district named YORK. It is composed of the Regional Municipality of York. It has a population of 1,173,334 and is 23.74% above the quota.

Proposed Electoral District Variation

(Electoral Quotient 948,263)

Electoral District Name 2021 Census Population Variation
Mississauga South-Halton 941,837 -0.68%
Durham-Peterborough-Haliburton 1,033,856 9.03%
Toronto-East York 906,546 -4.40%
Etobicoke-North York 947,004 -0.13%
Prince Edward-Kingston-Cornwall 875,552 -7.67%
Georgian Bay 887,534 -6.40%
Hamilton-Niagara 1,047,294 10.44%
London-Brantford 921,150 -2.86%
Waterloo-Huron 1,033,433 8.98%
Northern Ontario 745,767 -21.35%
Ottawa 1,017,449 7.30%
York 1,173,334 23.74%
Peel North-Halton Hills 1,042,871 9.98%
Scarborough-Don Valley 941,446 -0.72%
Sarnia-Chatham-Windsor 724,280 -23.62%

Maps

CSV for use with http://www.election-atlas.ca/ridingbuilder/

Google Drive Folder with Maps

Objections

This post will be open for any user wishing to make an objection about Electoral District Boundaries, names, etc. until 6PM on August 31, 2022. The elections agency will make a full response to all objections, and may make alterations to the proposal based on them prior to the map being enacted.

submitted by /u/Model-Wanuke to r/OntarioSimMeta
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