A collapse map – Week 11 – March 17, 2023 at 03:41AM

Hi fellow collapsniks,

We’re week 11 of my serie of collapse maps.

As a reminder, I’m making this map every week, it is color coding countries regarding their collapse status. It ranges from green (the country is functioning & far from a collapse) to black (the country has totally collapsed). Details of the color ranges at the bottom of the post. The collapse status is different from the standards of living, wealth, happiness, or political regime (even if it is related).

– That map is not a forecast nor its intent is to forecast collapse. It is a glimpse on the immediate, current state of things.

– This is also not meant to be “the ultimate truth” about collapse for every country. It’s only my personal point of view on the collapse situations in the world. In the end, you may agree or disagree with the colors and I’m always happy to discuss and debate, still the point is not to get to an unanimous agreement, but more to trigger the discussion.

– Please note that having a far right or even dictatorial government has nothing to do with collapse directly. It may even be the opposite: authoritarian measures, on the short term, are ensuring the stability of a society, thus preventing immediate collapse. To be clear: I’m not advocating for those measures or this type of government. But still, it is a temporary shield against collapse.

Updates since last week:

– Malawi is turning yellow instead of green. In short: cholera, cyclone, fuel shortages. They have an ongoing cholera epidemic since a while, now it’s rising fast. The Freddy cyclone is hitting them and it’s getting serious (more than 200 deaths). And there are also fuel shortages because of the country currency deflating (hence government not able to import the necessary fuel).

– France: turning yellow instead of green. The pensions reform is creating a lot of tensions; strikes & protests are continuing and worsening in some cases. Multiple voluntary blackouts on governmental buildings or industrial zones. All major ports are blocked. First fuel shortages (due to refineries and oil depots being blocked by strikers) are appearing. Garbage in Paris are piling up. There were riots in all major cities yesterday night. It may turn green next week if things cool down, or stay yellow if the government gets impeached in a few days.

As usual please give me your comments, critics, and please challenge my classifications!

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Reminder of the colors meaning:

– Green is a functioning country. That does not mean the country is a good country to live in. North Korea is green, in the sense that it is functioning and it does not look like it will collapse anytime soon. Still, I know, it’s one of the worst dictatorships in the world, with concentration camps, nuclear threats on their neighbors, and population being more or less enslaved, malnourished and brainwashed. But unfortunately the regime there is pretty strong and stable since a while, so it is green under a collapse perspective. Same kind of reasoning applies for oil-blessed Middle East countries: Human, women and LGBT rights are not a thing there, still those countries are (ultra) rich and functioning correctly, as of today. Green examples: Germany, Qatar, Israel, Japan.

– Yellow means the country is in a serious crisis. There are large-scale troubles ongoing that are altering the normalcy of the daily life for most of the population. Still not a catastrophic state for the population. Nationwide protests in the streets are not a crisis; but if it leads to civil unrest at a significant scale (like overthrowing the parliament – as in Suriname or Brazil), then it could be a crisis.

Fuel or food shortages for a significant part of the population are a crisis, if that is a new thing. Having a poor/malnourished population since years or decade is not a crisis per se, because it’s the normal (read stable) state of things there. A unexpected and sudden full government change may or may not be a crisis, depending on how it’s happening. Canada is yellow, as it suffers multiple “small” crises at the same time: housing, healthcare, inflation, homelessness, climatic…

The crisis in yellow countries is not that major that it may trigger a full collapse in the short term. Examples: US, UK, Russia, Brazil, Suriname.

– Red means the country is close to collapse. It has major structural issues and ongoing crises and could collapse quickly, under a few months or weeks. Examples: Libya, Myanmar, Pakistan.

– Black means the country has collapsed already and completely. Whether it’s economically (Venezuela), societally/structurally (Haiti), or suffering a full scale civil war (Yemen), or all at once… Examples: Somalia, Afghanistan, Syria. So far 9 countries in the world are considered collapsed on this map.